Jun 11, 2008 if current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented, world average total tec and final fec energy consumption per capita will increase by about 27. This special report, part of the world energy outlook series, assesses the effect of recent lowcarbon. Its prospects and contribution are presented in a dedicated chapter. Fossil fuel accounts for 80% of the worlds primary energy mix in 2030. Ghg emissions outlook from iea european environment agency. Energy information administration s eia international energy outlook ieo presents an analysis of longterm world energy markets in sixteen regions through 2050. Each edition tends to have a particular geographical or policy focus. Collectively, nonoecd countries account for 87% of the. World energy outlook 2008 answers these and other burning questions. World energy outlook 2011 brings together the latest data, policy developments, and the experience of another year to provide robust analysis and insight into global energy markets, today and for the next 25 years. The future is electrifying, with lowcarbon technologies on the rise and electricity demand set to grow at twice the pace of energy demand as a whole. Other contributing factors are policy changes such as for example the us energy independence and security act, which mandates vehicle fuel economy improvements. Nov 30, 2015 the csis energy and national security program is pleased to host dr.
Why the ieas 2012 world energy outlook could be wrong. Overview regional trends oil and gas supply investment fossilfuel subsidies and renewable energy outlook source. The iea releases the world energy outlook weo2016 this week. Fatih birol, executive director at the international energy agency to present the iea s world energy outlook 2015. The iea demonstrate this themselves clearly in their. Ieas world energy outlook 2017 foresees a transformation. Africas role in global energy growth between 201840 is huge. It provides an exceptionally thorough analysis of global energy markets and clearly highlights the acceleration of an energy transformation that is already well underway. The csis energy and national security program is pleased to host dr.
World energy outlook 2019 the world energy outlookseries is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energy related emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. Database documentation 2019 edition 7 international energy agency 3. Lower prices are stimulating demand according to the iea, but the main factor has been stronger global economic growth. Liquids consumption sums up oil and biofuels, and biofuels are measured in energy equivalent volumes of oil. Energy information administration eia of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040. Iea gets hilariously slammed for obsessively inaccurate. This may be a recurring problem if climate change results in. Much stronger policy action is required to move us to a secure and sustainable energy future and to provide energy for all. Iea world energy outlook sees radical shifts, despite conservatism the next 25 years will see a radical shift towards renewables and away from coal, a global energy centre of gravity pivoting towards india and the prospect of africa leapfrogging dirty energy. Forecast errors in ieacountries energy consumption. The world energy statistics and balances data service is a package containing both the world energy statistics and world energy balances data services this service is updated three times a year with a progressively broader geographical coverage in february, april and august with the final edition with global data.
The forecast is part of a new policies scenario that includes countries. Published asc newest to oldest oldest to newest position name. Iea and oil track record analysis and assessment of oil supply scenarios in weo 200020 petter henke the world energy outlook weo, an annual publication from the international energy agency iea, is often considered to be the most authoritative source of future energy scenarios for policy decision makers. Request pdf comments on the iea world energy outlook 2016 presentation on the occasion of the wec finlands breakfast meeting. In more sophisticated systems, fossil fuel prices are determined endogenously. Unless there are major government initiatives to address this problem, the number of electricity. More than 40 years after the international energy agency iea. Why iea, opec and eia have such different outlooks for energy. Its allencompassing annual studies of oil, natural gas, coal, electricity and renewables are indispensable tools for energy policy makers. The capp was established in 2003 by utilities of eleven. The world energy statistics and balances data service is a package containing both the world energy statistics and world energy balances data services. Flow definitions supply flow short name definition production indprod refers to the quantities of fuels extracted or produced, calculated after any operation for removal of inert matter or impurities e.
Changes from last edition countries geographical coverage in an effort to enhance timeliness of data for countries beyond the oecd, the iea is pleased to include full coverage of selected emerging economies in this release. Why iea, opec and eia have such different outlooks for. As part of the total energy mix, all predictions are relatively alike between 24% and 26%. The iea carries out a comprehensive programme of energy cooperation among its member countries. China and india account for just over half of the increase in world primary energy between 2006 and 2030. The major part of this increase will come from china, india and the transition countries, which include russia and other eecca countries, see and some eu10. Energyintensive sectors worldwide account for around onefifth of industrial value added, onequarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use. The world energy outlook does not provide a forecast of what will happen. Based on scenarios, these projections compare what will happen if policies remain the same and what might happen if policies were improved. New iea analysis finds that globally, the oil and gas industry can feasibly reduce up to 75 percent of its current methane emissions. The international energy outlook 2016 ieo2016 presents an assessment by the u. And the report examines the outlook for brazils energy sector in detail and the implications for the global energy landscape. A downloadable pdf that condenses the 810page report to 11 pages. Fatih birol, executive director at the international energy agency to present the ieas world energy outlook 2015.
If current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented, world average total tec and final fec energy consumption per capita will increase by about 27. What would it take for this to happen and what would it mean for energy security and for the energy transition. Total energy consumption outlook from iea european. Energy and climate change world energy outlook special report. The world energy outlook 1998, based on a new world energy model. This edition of the ieas flagship weo publication gives the latest energy demand and supply projections for different future scenarios, broken down by country, fuel and sector. There is no single story about the future of global energy and no longterm iea forecast for the energy sector. Forecasts concerning the years 1985, 1990 and 1995 can now be compared to actual values.
Create an account to be able to download free publications and make purchases on the iea webstore. Iea world energy outlook 2016, helsinki, november 23, 2016. Eia, international energy outlook 20 washington, dc. The ieas nps outlook is in the same ballpark at 45%, while its sds projections anticipate a much lower 15% rise in gas usage on the back of following recommended policies. Published every year based on objective data and dispassionate analysis, the world energy outlook weo provides critical analysis and insights on trends in energy demand and supply, and what they mean for energy security, environmental protection and economic development the first weo was published in 1977 and it has been an annual publication since 1998. Iea 2010 world energy outlook ecoglobe sustainability. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent threequarters of the regions gross domestic product and energy demand, including nigeria, south. Final energy consumption outlook from iea european. The international energy agency iea publication world energy outlook 2017 projects that by 2040 the world will need 30 per cent more energy than we use today to meet the energy needs of a growing, more urbanized world. Comments on the iea world energy outlook 2016 request pdf. World energy outlook 1998 edition jeanmarc jancovici. Nov 14, 2017 launch presentation, 14 november 2017. Ieas world energy outlook 2017 foresees a transformation of the global energy system, china takes a back seat to india in energy growth, the united. Contacts the international energy outlook 2016 was prepared by the u.
The main tool used in the development of the weo scenario projections is the world energy model wem, which according to the extensive publicly. Methane emissions must be slashed for future of climate. The international energy agency the iea, which was established in november 1974, has over the years gained recognition as one of the worlds most authoritative sources for energy statistics. Gas consumption is predicted to rise 43% by the eia and 57% by opec. The international energy agencys annual energy projections. Energy intensive sectors worldwide account for around onefifth of industrial value added, onequarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energyrelated emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. That is the question asked by the international energy agency on page 48 of the introduction to their world energy outlook 2010, launched on 9 november 2010. But the international energy agency iea, i believe, runs a greater risk of being wrong with its prediction that the us will become the worlds largest oil producer by 2020 and energy independent by 2030 in their 2012 world energy outlook weo.
Nov 10, 2015 world energy outlook market report series world energy investment special reports country reports. Africa energy outlook 2019 connaissance des energies. Improvements in the efficiency of current energy technologies and the adoption of new ones along the energy supply chain are a key source of uncertainty for the global energy outlook. Mar 27, 2017 governments and investors routinely use iea scenarios to inform energy decisions, especially the scenarios in its flagship world energy outlook, published every november. Comparison of ieo2016 and iea world energy consumption growth rates by region, 201220. World energy outlook 2011 international energy forum ief. Energy access outlook 2017 international energy agency. In 2035, the united states would realize a 15% decrease in energy demand relative to 2010 and a 1. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energyrelated emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices this years edition updates the outlooks for all fuels, technologies and regions, based on the latest market data, policy initiatives and cost trends. The international energy outlook 2016 was prepared by the u. Each year the international energy outlook iea publishes its flagship publication, the world energy outlook report, in which it presents several projections through to 2040 based on what the.
Iea world energy outlook 2010a comment sciencedirect. It goes beyond a mere energy report or outlook predictions. Jim diefenderfer, director, office of electricity, coal, nuclear, and. To do so, please go to the bottom of this text and play with the prebuilt graphs to make the comparisons you like for crude oil production, total oil consumption, oil importers and exporters, oil.
The international energy agencys iea statistics underreport the role of wind and solar in the worlds energy mix by a factor of three, writes erik sauar. These changes provide the backdrop for the world energy outlook 2017, which includes a full update of energy demand and supply projections to 2040 based. Eias international energy outlook 2017 ieo2017 presents an assessment of longterm world energy markets. This process supports energy policy development and encourages the exchange of international best practices.
Actual future conditions including econom ic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographi c changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading factors affecting future. What the iea got wrong on its energy outlook ecowatch. Iea 2017 world energy outlook context magazine by capp. Global energy outlook 2015 this paper assesses trends in the global energy sector through 2040 by harmonizing multiple projections issued by private, government, and intergovernmental organizations based on methods from global energy outlooks comparison. World energy use continues to increase steadily in the reference scenario, but at a slower rate than projected in weo2007 report, mainly due to higher energy prices and slower economic growth. Global energy outlook 2015 international energy forum. The annual international energy agency iea report world energy outlook 2010 weo 2010 is a remarkable document. Database documentation 2019 first edition international energy agency this document provides information regarding the 2019 first edition of the iea world energy statistics database for oecd and selected emerging economies the final edition will contain global data. The difficult challenge ahead of climate negotiators is to persuade countries to adopt more ambitious objectives. Based on scenarios, these projections compare what will happen if policies remain. Africa energy outlook 2019 is the iea s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the african continent, with a particular emphasis on subsaharan africa. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight. Iea world energy outlook 2017 introduces sustainable.
This gives policymakers, investors and the public the false impression that wind and solar are insignificant. Energy efficiency a major factor in the global energy balance is treated in much the same way as conventional fuels. Paul holtberg, team leader, analysis integration team paul. Reference case projections in each edition of the ieo are not predictions of what is most likely to happen. Database documentation 2019 first edition international energy agency 1.
The international energy agency iea has long paid close attention to africas energy sector. Sustainable infrastructure for lowcarbon development in. The ieo2017 is the first ed ition of this report to include mo del results through 2050, which are. It interacts with the global economic and social issues as well as future environmental and developmental considerations. The iea s world energy outlook has tracked countrybycountry data on access to electricity and clean cooking for over fifteen years. World energy outlook 2015 analysis and key findings. Liquids consumption sums up oil and biofuels, and biofuels are measured in energyequivalent volumes of oil. The international energy agencys iea 2017 world energy outlook weo forecasts four shifts that will shape the global energy system over the next 25 years, including expanding electrification, declining cost and rapid expansion of renewables, growing us oil production and cleaner and more diversified energy production in china.
Four largescale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the world energy outlook 2017. India is set for a period of rapid, sustained growth in energy demand. Oct 12, 2017 iea is now forecasting usage for 2017 at 97. This africa energy outlook contains quantitative analysis of important factors influencing energy. Statelevel action and competitive costs help renewables.
World energy outlook market report series world energy investment special reports country reports policy pathways technology roadmaps energy technology perspectives. The iea energy atlas also allows you to look at the evolution of one indicator for one country or to make a comparison between several countries. This years edition updates the outlooks for all fuels, technologies and regions, based on the latest market. This service is updated three times a year with a progressively broader geographical coverage in february, april and august with t he final edition with global data. In many relatively simpler systems, fossil fuel prices are assumed, and then energy supply, energy transformation and energy demand are simulated. It is possible that hydrogenbased energy systems and carbonsequestration technologies, which are now under development, could dramatically reduce carbon. But as weve seen, even in its new climate scenario, the iea overstates the future of fossil fuels, due to flawed assumptions and hidden distortions. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energy related emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices.